Thứ Bảy, 29 tháng 9, 2012

Update GOLD, SILVER

GOLD Weekly range

  • Gold weekly chart shows a broad range of 1522 - 1800.
  • Weekly stochastic shows overbought readings But price yet to show weakness. Stochastic need to fall below 80 line for a possible correction otherwise range breakout is likely to happen.
  • Gold bulls need a weekly close above 1800 for a possible breakout. Bearish weekly candle may start a fall.

SILVER In a range

 
  • SILVER 4 Hour chart shows a range between 33.26 - 34.86
  • Price for now is sustaining above 100 period SMA.
  • Price is moving around the 4 Hour cloud. So the range breakout should give a bigger move for silver.

Thứ Ba, 25 tháng 9, 2012

Update SPX,DJA, Gold, Oil, Silver Sep 24th 2012

SPY Support levels

 
  • SPY 4 Hour chart with up trend lines and 50 period SMA as support levels.
  • Breaking below 38.2% Fib level may extend the correction towards the golden ratio. An up move may happen from the first up trend line or the 50 period SMA.

Dow Jones ~ Intraday Update ~ 24 September 2012

The Dow declined to the lower trendline of the sideways range again today. The next target seems to be the top of the range at 13640ish again:

GLD Chart Analysis


  • GLD Near previous resistance level of 174.
  • Weekly chart also shows price pausing near 61.8% Fib level.
  • Daily MACD is showing some weakness which may work well for bears on a channel breakdown and falling below 170

CRUDE Oil Update

DAILY CHARTS
 
4 HOUR CHART
  • Sustaining below 50 Day SMA should continue to favor bears of crude oil.
  • Crucial support and resistance levels shown in 2nd chart.
  • Last chart is of 4 Hour time frame which shows price near crucial level of 90.96. Trading above the 20 Period SMA may give a bounce in favor of crude oil bulls.

SILVER Trend update

 
  • Silver 4 Hour chart shows support at 33.48 and 100 period SMA.
  • For a possible trend change price must fall below the cloud.
  • Taking support at the current levels may give 35 levels again.


Thứ Hai, 24 tháng 9, 2012

CRUDE Oil Rising wedge update

  • Crude oil daily chart is falling from a rising wedge pattern.
  • Daily candle closing below 50 Day SMA may extend fall towards 86.90 levels.in the short term.

GOLD Range breakout

 
 
  • Gold Range breakout is not sustaining above 1779.
  • Gold bulls need hourly candles to close above this level for the up move to continue.
  • Price sustaining above 50 period SMA and Four hour cloud will continue to support bulls for upper breakouts.

Thứ Ba, 18 tháng 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 September 2012

Monday, September 17, 2012

Last Thursday it was proposed that the primary count was that the market was in one giant 2 year long ending diagonal triangle count and that the market had experienced "overthrow" of the upper wedgeline which is normal.  On Friday's update it was stated that price-wise, the overthrow had been quite ample.  The one factor that was a guess was the time factor - how long can the market remain above the wedgeline before it exhausts or we can throw out the wedge count as being invalid?

The best guess to the question is about a week or less. But thats a guess. Since the wedge was 2 years in the making, we can give the market some leeway in this regard. 2 years to build the wedge, we can allow for at least a week to stay above it before exhaustion sets in and prices collapse. That is we can allow more time. Its price that we cannot allow much more if it all.

Our squiggle count - using the Wilshire5000 for form (consider S&P500 in the same counts) - shows that either the final squiggle occurred last Friday or it has one more small push up (likely to the same price level).
Overall the wedge count's bigger picture:
SPX daily shows the wedge count: A close under 1434 SPX would constitute a reversal. In other words a close under "QE3" day (Thursday) will be the bear trigger.

TOP ALTERNATE COUNT

Friday we delved into the top alternate count scenario

The top alternate count does not allow for the SPX for a short term reversal under 1434. The top alternate count is the double zigzag as shown on the DJIA.  The top alternate count suppose the market is in wave (C) of [Y] of cycle b or x.  This means that last Thursday was the "third of a third" up of that wave (C). Thus under this scenario, the market will manage to maintain relatively above the wedgeline and continue on for another 4-10 weeks until the cycle top is complete in a choppy, yet steady price advance.

Top alt count.
A breakdown of the final wave (C) implies the time factor means the market is not done yet in price nor time. A close under 13300 would negate this count. Thats approximately where the heavy red/green horizontal support resides.

CONCLUSION:
We can draw 2 logical conclusions from the preferred count (rising 2 year Primary wave [2] wedge) versus the top alt count of a cycle wave double zigzag.

1. The first EW conclusion is that the rising wedge count demands a price reversal and preferably this week if it has not already started at last Friday's high already.  It must not have any more significant price rises above last Friday's high and must close under 1434 SPX very soon for a reversal.

2. The top alternate count is that the market is in wave (C) of a double primary zigzag resulting in a cycle wave b or x wave at a higher price. This count implies that the "third of a third" of wave (C) occurred last Thursday and that the market will remain above the upper wedgeline pushing until the wave (C) is completed and the cycle wave has topped. The time factor for this would be approx 4 - 10 weeks of choppy rallying. A new market high above 2007 may or may not occur. Neither are required in this count.


FINAL WORD
The primary count of this blog is the ending diagonal wedge. It may have one more small wave up this week, however prices have more or less topped. We are waiting for exhaustion to set in and watch the fireworks begin as the market cascades downward swiftly trapping bulls.  This trap should cause a panic which will waterfall the market crashing back through the bottom of the wedge and down.

Sentiment supports the notion. Via Sentiment Trader, the "smart money" indicator was at 29% and the "dumb money" was at 68% a spread of more than 25 which is extreme caution. The amount of extreme bullish (market bearish) indicators were at 37% versus 1%.  A reading above 35% is extreme caution suggesting an imminent top.

But being as it may, I thought I would explain the top alt scenario of the double zigzag,    Thus we have our key markers for delineation between the two best counts. With Sentiment extremes being registered as I explained in the previous paragraph above, I cannot imagine the market working off these extreme levels of overbought - while maintaining prices above 1434 no less - and powering on for many more weeks to finish a cycle wave top. However we all know the market can remain "irrational" longer than we can remain solvent.

So one count will win out soon.

But really the end result of either count is of course bearish regardless: End of the bear market rally from 2009.

ES Chart analysis

  • ES Four hour chart with the up trend line.
  • Price falling below 50 Hour SMA may give a correction towards the Up trend line drawn in first chart.

Thứ Bảy, 15 tháng 9, 2012

CRUDE Oil Trend update


CRUDE Oil Support levels

 17/9/2012

 


  • Crude oil Four hour chart shown with crucial support level near 93.95  -  94.10
  • 4 Hour chart 200 period SMA giving support.
  • More correction if 50 day SMA gets broken. Unable to break below 50 SMA will favor crude oil bulls. Bulls strong above 97 - 98 level.

 

CRUDE Oil Trend update

 
  • Crude oil daily chart shows price ranges continues to give upper breakouts.
  • Weekly chart shows a possible W pattern. for now price may form a range between 99 - 102 level. Closing above 102 may target 105 levels.
  • Monthly chart shows the falling resistance line from 147 through 110 will meet price at around 105 levels for the current month candle.

GOLD and SILVER Chart update

GOLD Enters the long term ascending channel

  • First chart shows Four hour time frame with up trend lines. Bulls will remain strong above the blue up trend line.
  • 2nd chart shows weekly chart with Fibonacci levels, Price near golden ratio and previous price resistance between 1790 - 1805
  • Last chart shows price reentering the long term ascending channel. Price violated the channel on the upside then it broke down below this channel and now price is getting back into this channel which may help gold bulls to continue the steady up trend it has been for the last few years.

SILVER Chart update

 
  • Immediate support level for silver between 33.90 - 34.10 level.
  • 200 Hour acting as strong support.
  • Price hits an important resistance level in Weekly chart. Silver bulls must trade above 38.2% Fib level for targeting higher levels.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 September 2012

Friday, September 14, 2012

RISING WEDGE ENDING DIAGONAL COUNT:
Yesterday's update covered the rising bearish wedge ending diagonal count. It was stated that in order for this count to be correct, prices would have to reverse in short order after the "overthrow" of the upper wedgeline which occurred yesterday and followthrough today. So today we were looking for a reversal of sorts and although it looked like it was going to happen, market internals were still quite robust.  So the wedge is in question going  into the weekend.

So after the overthrow of the upper wedgeline, we expect a reversal shortly. Stocks shouldn't be hovering above the upper wedgeline for long if this is a true bearish wedge count. How long is acceptable?  Since the rising wedge is over 2 years in the making, we can give it some leeway in both price and time.  Today's price high was pretty much the maximum amount of overthrow we can expect.  As far as time above the wedgeline, we should expect a close under 1434 SPX by Tuesday's close, Wednesday at the latest as long as price does not rise any more significantly. This is my best guess for time and price. Its a judgement call for a wedge pattern of this size. Only the market knows.

THE BEST ALTERNATE COUNT IS A DOUBLE ZIGZAG
If we do not get the reversal under 1434 SPX soon, we likely will have to switch to the alternate double zigzag count from the 2009 low in a Cycle wave b or x.  New highs above 2007 may or may not happen. Neither is required.

USING EW LOGIC IF THIS IS THE ALTERNATE DOUBLE ZIGZAG COUNT.
The wave count shows us that if this is a double zigzag count, we must be in wave (C) of primary [Y].  But where in wave (C)?  Well, looking at the extreme overlapping waves since the start of wave (C) one should count these waves as a series of 1's and 2's and suppose that recent uptrend of the last few days is somewhere near the middle of a "third of a third" wave up in wave (C) of [Y].

This is a useful potential price marker. The third of a third is often near the middle of  a 5 wave structure in both price and time.  This is where there occurs a "virgin wave space".  This is the space where prices do not overlap both prior and after.  A nullification of this virgin wave space is a must if this is an ending diagonal count. Simply put if we just had a "third of a third" in wave (C) we cannot expect any price close below 1434 until after the ultimate cycle top occurs.

AND if this is near the middle of the wave (C) in time, we should expect this wave to continue in a choppy manner (finishing out all the subwave 4's and 5's) taking another 4 to 10 weeks to play out. 6 weeks takes us until the election. 10 weeks takes the market into December time frame, just before the January "fiscal cliff".
FINAL EW LOGIC CONCLUSION
1. For the rising wedge count to be correct, we require a quick reversal back under the wedgeline and a close under 1434 SPX within a week or so at most.  This is a best guess. Prices cannot rise much more if at all. This is a judgement call. A market collapse would be the confirmation of the ending rising wedge.  We would label the high Primary wave [2] of cycle wave c of Supercycle wave a.

2. If prices maintain, then the double primary zigzag cycle wave b or x is likely the count. Bears would have to endure another painful amount of weeks until a historic cycle wave top. Wave action would likely be choppy from here on out yet maintaining a low volume advance perhaps challenging ultimate 2007 highs.  We may even expect that the general Public will be sucked back into the Wall Street game as the final suckers in the final rise.

WHAT DO I THINK WILL HAPPEN?
Ultimately price collapse will occur in either scenario.  I am as bearish as ever because the rise since 2009 does NOT COUNT AS AN IMPULSE. Therefore this wave is a BEAR MARKET RALLY (albeit of huge proportions) and the next logical outcome once the bear market cycle wave (or primary wave) is over is that a nasty bear wave ensues.

Yet I have patience. Whats a few more weeks if that's whats needed?

Does this look like an impulse? At best, a double zigzag.

CONCLUSION
Many  sentiment measures are at an extreme and I cannot see them extending for another 5-10 weeks to play out the rest of wave (C) of a double zigzag of [Y]. I still prefer P[2] ending on a rising wedge.  Therefore I favor the rising wedge scenario as primary count and look forward to a price reversal next week. With that said, market internals have been strong this week. (yet not a 90% up day). It could be the "final lunge" I was alluding to. But golly, we'll know soon enough.

I'll update some more tonight with charts, sentiment data and some other thoughts.


SPY Bull flag and Bearish candle

  • SPY 5 Minutes shows a bull flag pattern.
  • Price has fallen below the cloud of 5 Minutes. So intraday bulls need to get back above the cloud for continuing the trend.
  • 4 Hour chart shows a bearish Shooting start or an Inverted hammer candle. This one need price to follow up with a negative candle as confirmation of weakness.