GOLD Support and Resistance

• Weekly chart shows bulls struggling to cross 1800 levels. Bulls need a weekly close above this level for a bigger breakout.
• For bears a close below 20 SMA would hint weakness. Daily close below 1755 should start a bigger correction

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 October 2012

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

• SPX 4 Hour chart shows price Near support zone of 1426 - 1430
• Daily chart shows price approaching the up trend line
• Price is also falling towards the support zone of daily chart which is between 1422 - 1426. So this zone of 1422 - 1430 may act as strong support for bulls of SPX.

 Wednesday, October 10, 2012

We've laid out the larger counts. DJIA would probably count best as a double primary zigzag. Triple negative weekly divergence shows loss of momentum:

We still like the wedge count also as shown on the SPX below. If this is a bearish rising wedge, a collapse in prices should occur. That is the outcome of ending diagonal triangles.

 Local candle action shows prices again trying to hold 1430 support and now well below the upper wedgeline again. Yet we still need a solid "lower low" to make the bear case stand out.

One can argue that wave 5 was truncated in a very sneaky expanding diagonal triangle. If this is true, it displays weakness in the wave pattern. Hence the fairly quick and steady drop in prices so far from the recent 1370 high.

The ending diagonal expanding triangle would count as this:

Update GOLD, SILVER

GOLD Weekly range

• Gold weekly chart shows a broad range of 1522 - 1800.
• Weekly stochastic shows overbought readings But price yet to show weakness. Stochastic need to fall below 80 line for a possible correction otherwise range breakout is likely to happen.
• Gold bulls need a weekly close above 1800 for a possible breakout. Bearish weekly candle may start a fall.

SILVER In a range

 

• SILVER 4 Hour chart shows a range between 33.26 - 34.86
• Price for now is sustaining above 100 period SMA.
• Price is moving around the 4 Hour cloud. So the range breakout should give a bigger move for silver.

Update SPX,DJA, Gold, Oil, Silver Sep 24th 2012

SPY Support levels

 

• SPY 4 Hour chart with up trend lines and 50 period SMA as support levels.
• Breaking below 38.2% Fib level may extend the correction towards the golden ratio. An up move may happen from the first up trend line or the 50 period SMA.

Dow Jones ~ Intraday Update ~ 24 September 2012

The Dow declined to the lower trendline of the sideways range again today. The next target seems to be the top of the range at 13640ish again:

GLD Chart Analysis

• GLD Near previous resistance level of 174.
• Weekly chart also shows price pausing near 61.8% Fib level.
• Daily MACD is showing some weakness which may work well for bears on a channel breakdown and falling below 170

CRUDE Oil Update

DAILY CHARTS

 

4 HOUR CHART

• Sustaining below 50 Day SMA should continue to favor bears of crude oil.
• Crucial support and resistance levels shown in 2nd chart.
• Last chart is of 4 Hour time frame which shows price near crucial level of 90.96. Trading above the 20 Period SMA may give a bounce in favor of crude oil bulls.

SILVER Trend update

 

• Silver 4 Hour chart shows support at 33.48 and 100 period SMA.
• For a possible trend change price must fall below the cloud.
• Taking support at the current levels may give 35 levels again.

CRUDE Oil Rising wedge update

• Crude oil daily chart is falling from a rising wedge pattern.
• Daily candle closing below 50 Day SMA may extend fall towards 86.90 levels.in the short term.

GOLD Range breakout

 

 

• Gold Range breakout is not sustaining above 1779.
• Gold bulls need hourly candles to close above this level for the up move to continue.
• Price sustaining above 50 period SMA and Four hour cloud will continue to support bulls for upper breakouts.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 September 2012

Monday, September 17, 2012

Last Thursday it was proposed that the primary count was that the market was in one giant 2 year long ending diagonal triangle count and that the market had experienced "overthrow" of the upper wedgeline which is normal.  On Friday's update it was stated that price-wise, the overthrow had been quite ample.  The one factor that was a guess was the time factor - how long can the market remain above the wedgeline before it exhausts or we can throw out the wedge count as being invalid?

The best guess to the question is about a week or less. But thats a guess. Since the wedge was 2 years in the making, we can give the market some leeway in this regard. 2 years to build the wedge, we can allow for at least a week to stay above it before exhaustion sets in and prices collapse. That is we can allow more time. Its price that we cannot allow much more if it all.

Our squiggle count - using the Wilshire5000 for form (consider S&P500 in the same counts) - shows that either the final squiggle occurred last Friday or it has one more small push up (likely to the same price level).

Overall the wedge count's bigger picture:

SPX daily shows the wedge count: A close under 1434 SPX would constitute a reversal. In other words a close under "QE3" day (Thursday) will be the bear trigger.

TOP ALTERNATE COUNT

Friday we delved into the top alternate count scenario

The top alternate count does not allow for the SPX for a short term reversal under 1434. The top alternate count is the double zigzag as shown on the DJIA.  The top alternate count suppose the market is in wave (C) of [Y] of cycle b or x.  This means that last Thursday was the "third of a third" up of that wave (C). Thus under this scenario, the market will manage to maintain relatively above the wedgeline and continue on for another 4-10 weeks until the cycle top is complete in a choppy, yet steady price advance.

Top alt count.

A breakdown of the final wave (C) implies the time factor means the market is not done yet in price nor time. A close under 13300 would negate this count. Thats approximately where the heavy red/green horizontal support resides.

CONCLUSION:
We can draw 2 logical conclusions from the preferred count (rising 2 year Primary wave [2] wedge) versus the top alt count of a cycle wave double zigzag.

1. The first EW conclusion is that the rising wedge count demands a price reversal and preferably this week if it has not already started at last Friday's high already.  It must not have any more significant price rises above last Friday's high and must close under 1434 SPX very soon for a reversal.

2. The top alternate count is that the market is in wave (C) of a double primary zigzag resulting in a cycle wave b or x wave at a higher price. This count implies that the "third of a third" of wave (C) occurred last Thursday and that the market will remain above the upper wedgeline pushing until the wave (C) is completed and the cycle wave has topped. The time factor for this would be approx 4 - 10 weeks of choppy rallying. A new market high above 2007 may or may not occur. Neither are required in this count.


FINAL WORD
The primary count of this blog is the ending diagonal wedge. It may have one more small wave up this week, however prices have more or less topped. We are waiting for exhaustion to set in and watch the fireworks begin as the market cascades downward swiftly trapping bulls.  This trap should cause a panic which will waterfall the market crashing back through the bottom of the wedge and down.

Sentiment supports the notion. Via Sentiment Trader, the "smart money" indicator was at 29% and the "dumb money" was at 68% a spread of more than 25 which is extreme caution. The amount of extreme bullish (market bearish) indicators were at 37% versus 1%.  A reading above 35% is extreme caution suggesting an imminent top.

But being as it may, I thought I would explain the top alt scenario of the double zigzag,    Thus we have our key markers for delineation between the two best counts. With Sentiment extremes being registered as I explained in the previous paragraph above, I cannot imagine the market working off these extreme levels of overbought - while maintaining prices above 1434 no less - and powering on for many more weeks to finish a cycle wave top. However we all know the market can remain "irrational" longer than we can remain solvent.

So one count will win out soon.

But really the end result of either count is of course bearish regardless: End of the bear market rally from 2009.

ES Chart analysis

• ES Four hour chart with the up trend line.
• Price falling below 50 Hour SMA may give a correction towards the Up trend line drawn in first chart.

CRUDE Oil Trend update

CRUDE Oil Support levels

 17/9/2012

 

• Crude oil Four hour chart shown with crucial support level near 93.95  -  94.10
• 4 Hour chart 200 period SMA giving support.
• More correction if 50 day SMA gets broken. Unable to break below 50 SMA will favor crude oil bulls. Bulls strong above 97 - 98 level.

 

CRUDE Oil Trend update

 

• Crude oil daily chart shows price ranges continues to give upper breakouts.
• Weekly chart shows a possible W pattern. for now price may form a range between 99 - 102 level. Closing above 102 may target 105 levels.
• Monthly chart shows the falling resistance line from 147 through 110 will meet price at around 105 levels for the current month candle.

GOLD and SILVER Chart update

GOLD Enters the long term ascending channel

• First chart shows Four hour time frame with up trend lines. Bulls will remain strong above the blue up trend line.
• 2nd chart shows weekly chart with Fibonacci levels, Price near golden ratio and previous price resistance between 1790 - 1805
• Last chart shows price reentering the long term ascending channel. Price violated the channel on the upside then it broke down below this channel and now price is getting back into this channel which may help gold bulls to continue the steady up trend it has been for the last few years.

SILVER Chart update

 

• Immediate support level for silver between 33.90 - 34.10 level.
• 200 Hour acting as strong support.
• Price hits an important resistance level in Weekly chart. Silver bulls must trade above 38.2% Fib level for targeting higher levels.