Xu hướng trung hạn của giá cổ phiếu

Thứ hai, ngày 26 tháng tám năm 2013

 

Diễn biến giá Bond và stock của Việt Nam (Click vào hình để phóng to)

Phân tích liên thị trường, giá trái phiếu và chứng khoán có diễn biến nghịch trong xu hướng trung và dài hạn. Nhận thấy xu hướng của trái phiếu đang có chiều hướng gia tăng, cho nên đây là tín hiệu tiêu cực cho xu hướng của cổ phiếu.

Diễn biến giá Bond và stock của Mỹ (Click vào hình để phóng to)

Diễn biến giá trái phiếu và chứng khoán ở thị trường Mỹ cũng diễn ra tương tự như thị trường Việt Nam

Đồ thị tuần giá trái phiếu (Click vào hình để phóng to)

Qua phân tích biểu đồ tuần của giá trái phiếu, tín hiệu phân kỳ tăng giá với chỉ báo RSI(14) đang hình thành trên đồ thị tuần, điều này cho thấy xu hướng tăng trung hạn đã được xác nhận

Do đó, giá cổ phiếu ở thị trường Việt Nam nói riêng và TTCK thế giới nói chung sẽ ảnh ảnh hưởng tiêu cực trong xu hướng trung hạn. Nhiều khả năng giai đoạn từ đây đến cuối năm, giá cổ phiếu chỉ có những nhịp tăng nhẹ theo xu hướng Downtrend trung hạn.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 August 2013

Monday, August 26, 2013

The market rallied to just shy of the 50% retrace of the entire decline so far. That would make it a good spot to mark the top of wave (a) of Minute [ii]. Wave (b) underway is the primary count at the moment.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 26 August 2013

Monday, August 26, 2013

(link to previous count)

I think wave [c] of B is still missing. Once wave B is completed we should see wave C to 1600ish.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 22 August 2013

 

The SPX didn't rally above 1660 and thus wave A is still not over:

(link to previous count)

 

An updated long-term count for the SPX:

(link to previous count)

Gold ~ 22 August 2013, GDX ~ 22 August 2013

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Gold has been consolidating around 1370  over the last week:

If 1340-50 holds, the rally should continue.

The GDX is now near the resistance at 30/31ish:

(link to previous post)

If we get above it, we should see a rally to 40ish.

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

• Daily chart trying to stay above 100 Day SMA.
• Week is trying to turn up from 20 Week SMA.
• Weekly up trend line trying to support the fall. Weekly closing tomorrow will be crucial. Closing above the weekly support levels may extend this bounce.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 August 2013

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Still some short term Minute [iv] options, however we'll give the market the benefit of the doubt and suppose that Minute [ii] is underway. Minute [ii]'s price rise would be expected to challenge the SPY gap down at approx 1685 to close it.

Using Wilshire5000 for form:

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

• SPX Daily chart shows price up move getting resisted at 50 Day SMA.
• 2nd chart shows price sustaining at the bearish part of the channel and may extend the fall if unable to close back above 50 Day SMA.
• Weekly chart shows crucial support at 20 Week SMA (1639). This level has to be taken out on closing basis for  a bigger down move to follow.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 August 2013

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Today's rally relieved short term oversold conditions. Lets look at the squiggle options. 

S&P 500 Weekend update

 

• S&P 500 Managed to close below 50 Day SMA. But the closing does not looks convincing and Bears need to do more to pull prices down further.
• Price is at 38.2% Fib level which is at 1652. This level has to break for extending the down more.
• Bears must take care as Daily stochastic is reaching oversold zone. Bearish Below 1652. Strength above 1664

SILVER Weekend update

• Silver weekly chart shows a bullish close. This move may target the broken support line of the weekly Descending triangle shown in first chart.
• Price has also made a close above 20 Week SMA or Middle Bollinger band. Price is likely to move towards the upper bollinger band.
• Immediate resistance level at 38.2% Fib level near 24.50.

ES Chart update

ES Chart update

 

• One hour chart violates support level.
• Daily chart shows price below 50 Day SMA.
• Fib levels shows price moving towards 38.2% Fib level which may give a bounce 

S&P 500 Futures chart update








• ES one hour chart shows the levels which bears must break to extend this down move.
• Bulls need to protect 50 Day SMA to avoid a bigger fall.
• 4 Hour chart shows the broken support levels which may act as resistance if price bounces from here.

 

SILVER Trend update

 

• Silver daily chart has closed above 100 Day SMA.
• Week is testing 23.6% Fib level. This must be crossed on closing basis for a bigger up move to happen.
• One hour chart shows price trending up above the cloud. Weakness on price falling below the cloud.

GOLD Support and Resistance levels

• GOLD 4 Hour chart shows price closing above resistance zone.
• Daily chart has violated 100 Day SMA. Bulls of gold need a close above this zone to strengthen this up move.
• Last chart shows potential targets or resistance levels for the current up move. Broken resistance levels and 100 Day SMA may act as support.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 August 2013

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

This is a very fragmented market as yet another Hindenburg sighting has occurred.

Internally, the market is showing negative divergence in the up issues ratio. In other words, this market shows signs of serious "cracking".

Bigger picture. Maybe prices will remain elevated for a few more weeks to fulfill a nice symmetry pattern. Who knows. But things inside are deteriorating nonetheless and I suspect that will continue even if prices maintain.

GOLD Weakness at resistance levels

 

 

• First chart shows Fibonacci support levels for today's correction
• Daily chart shows weakness at resistance levels.

SILVER Chart Update

 

• Silver testing 100 Day sma
• Price near 23.6% Fib level
• Sustaining above the cloud may extend the up move. Weakness on price falling back into the daily cloud.

GOLD Support and Resistance levels

• Gold daily chart shows price testing resistance zone between 1338 - 1347.
• Price nearing 100 Day SMA at 1354.
• Price above daily cloud. Weakness on price falling back into the cloud. Sustaining above the cloud may lead to a breakout above the resistance levels.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 2 ~ 12 August 2013

Monday, August 12, 2013

(link to previous count)