GOLD Weekend update

 

• Gold has closed above 50 Week SMA.
• Price has also closed above weekly falling resistance line.
• Last two charts shows levels which may act as resistance. If price breaks these two levels on closing basis we may see a bigger up move in gold.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 August 2012

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 August 2012

The Wilshire5000 is quietly now some 325 points from its 2011 high.  We'll keep this wave count up as primary count for the overall market:

The S&P 500 of course made a new high. It was predicted on this blog a few weeks ago that if the S&P made a new high, the Wilshire would likely not.  So far that has been the case. The Wilshire failed to make a new high by almost 70 points which is a fairly decent divergence from the SPX.

Bears would like to label the SPX a wedge with underthrow.  A rising wedge is a bearish pattern in and of itself. However having underthrow - where prices to not even go up to meet the upper wedgeline - is an added layer of bearishness to price action.

What is a rule of contracting ending diagonal patterns? One is that the internal wave structure consist of "three's".  Certainly the wave 1, 3 and 5 wave legs since the 2010 low better counts internally as "three's" rather than 5 wave impulses so far.  That adds weight to the wedge scenario.

And what is a rule for prices once a wedge exhausts? A price decline back to under where the wedge started.  That would be under 1000 SPX in this case.  And that decline may be rapid as compared to the time it took to gain the points. From 1010 SPX to 1426 SPX took a full 25 months. If a "normal" price decline to 1000 SPX occurs, we would expect that to take 8-12 months. However if a rapid price declines occurs, we can cut that time by by half or more again. It could be a matter of a few months. This is why exhausting wedges are considered dangerous.

So whats my point? the point is we'll know soon enough if prices have exhausted.  The internal structures since the 1010 SPX low indicate a lack of impulsiveness despite the overall gains toward 1426.  This is a key element is wave theory.

The wedge also is weakening on each up leg as one would expect.  The last gasp of these past few weeks has been on low volume and lacking in 90% up days. The market is ripe for a major rapid decline of 400+ SPX points.

Of course the Wilshire500o is not counted as a wedge. Therefore it would be in wave 3 down. And wave 3's are always the strongest.

Potential squiggle count if the market has topped at 1426 SPX:

The NYAD counts as finished:

Of course longer term:

NYAD weekly. RSI is looking ripe for a major decline.

SPX weekly. One more day in this week, but even the double negative divergence on the RSI is pronounced.  In conjunction with a wedge pattern, the negative divergence is strengthened.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 August 2012

Friday, August 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 August 2012

Little early today, leaving town for a night.

If this is the biggest rising bearish wedge ever, then the subsequent price collapse will be too.

S&P 500 Weekend update

• Ascending channel and MACD Buy signal keeping the up move going.
• Price and MACD Histogram continue to diverge without any effect on price. Bears are hoping for a double top kind correction from 1422 levels.
• Last chart shows the possibility of 1422 level getting broken and a possible up move towards 1445 levels before a major fall could happen.

Friday, August 17, 2012

Friday, August 17, 2012

Coming bearish wave

I posted last week that 1422 was going to be possibly challenged this week and the market got very close to it at 1419. And judging by the way the market closed, we might see the market make a new high for the year early next week. But what matters now in my opinion is the coming bearish wave. I've read on several mainstream sites on how this bullish wave caught many off guard - they obviously were not reading about my posts :)- so we'll see if the crowd makes the jump after the first correction. I expect a correction sooner rather than later to the trend average but ideally it would be better if it did a proper Fib correction as those are the levels that should attract buyers who felt they missed the rally. If those levels do not attract enough buyers then we'll be in for a much deeper correction.

Have a great weekend!

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long
Short Term Trading Strategy: Hedged with VXX as of 08/16/2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 August 2012 - Rất hay 5+

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 August 2012

I consider the Wilshire 5000 the ultimate arbiter of the overall wave form of the markets.  For now it is 200 points below its previous peak.

S&P daily. Bearish rising wedge? Its internal wave structures count better as "threes" rather than impulses. That is a trait of an ending diagonal triangle (although I have this chart labeled as a triple zigzag). And this would probably be the biggest one ever.

SPX 30 minute.

NYAD count:

INDUSTRIALS count long term.

IMPORTANT POINTS TO CONSIDER:
1.) Note how the 2007 high is considered a "B" wave no matter what the count. The only question is at what degree.

2.) Note that the rise since 2009 is considered a "three" no matter what the degree outcome turns out to be.

The two points above are important to consider in the overall count since the 2000 orthodox social mood peak.   Whether or not the rally since 2009 is a Primary wave (2) or a cycle wave b (or even cycle x) is a moot point at this junction. Because both counts say the same thing: A nasty primary wave [3] down of cycle c or a complete cycle wave c itself is coming around the corner.  

There will be no great distinction between a wave [3] of cycle c or an outright complete cycle wave  c itself.  Both will involve intense selling.

BONDS:
Were bonds in a wedge? A subsequent price collapse is a clue and so far prices are cooperating. Wedges are signs of exhaustion and occur only at endpoints.

NDX:

Well at least the GDOW is cooperating with the overall count:

Ask China if they are in the grip of a bear market.

Or Japan:

CPC (yesterday's close)

Uh Oh. Rising 10Y yields are not bullish due to the record debt that needs to be serviced. And if mortgage rates take a hit, watch out for housing again.

Stock_16 August

Thứ năm, ngày 16 tháng tám năm 2012

Stock_16 August

16 August 2012,

VN-INDEX: 430.83  (0.06,0.01%)  Đóng cửa

26,763,034 CP 488.189 tỷ   80(20) 104  131(29) HNX-INDEX: 69.94  (-0.21,-0.30%) Đóng cửa 33,869,690 CP 315.69 tỷ   79(21) 212  109(31)

Chỉ số diễn biến trái chiều trong phiên hôm nay, thanh khoản sụt giảm ở HSX (-23%) và tăng nhẹ ở HNX (2%). Số cổ phiếu tăng giá ít hơn giảm giá cho thấy dòng tiền chưa đủ vào thị trường theo chiều rộng, dòng tiền thông minh lựa chọn những cổ phiếu cơ bản bên HSX (thời gian gần đây là ngành dầu khí) để mua.

HNX_daily chart

HNX: HNX tiếp tục hành trình tìm xu hướng mới, biên độ dao động hiện tại rất hẹp cho thấy thời điểm xu hướng diễn ra rất gần, có lẽ xu hướng sắp tới sẽ rõ ràng và dễ đánh hơn thời điểm hiện tại.

Tiếp tục giữ trạng thái và chờ đợi đối với những NĐT cầm tiền mặt.

Good trade my friends!

Daily report 16.8.2012 Link down here Đọc thêm!

Được đăng bởi Nguyễn Công Thành vào lúc 17:55

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 August 2012

ORIGINAL POST
Another massive drop in the VIX today. Based on that, the current wave structure, and what seems to be one more small wave up needed in the NYAD daily count, we can assume the market will try and take one more shot at breaking upwards.

Using the Wilshire below for form, we have the best count(s) laid out.  Either Minor 2 has topped or will after a short burst up in trying to break through to new highs.  If a new 2012 high does occur, we'd have to label the new high Primary [2] proper.  If a market burst did occur, there is a chance the S&P500 bests its 1422 SPX previous high and the broader Wilshire5000 does not thereby creating a bearish non-confirmation.

The sideways action of the last week - if it is some kind of wave four - can only relate to the previous up move wave (i) of [c] as noted on the chart.  There is too much sideways action to relate this as a wave four in relation to any subwaves that occurred since the 14101.79 pivot low. Therefore this squiggle chart here has been eliminated as a count due to the length of a sideways wave four.  Its simply too big to relate to wave ii on the chart as I had it. Of course if a decline starts tomorrow, then we can use the count basically by putting a wave v at the top of last week..

Its kind of a moot point anyways. We have a low volume August, low volatility and the market trying to maintain its gains so it can challenge its previous 2012 high. Can it do it?

The NYAD daily supports the notion of a final wave [v] of 5 of (5) of [5].

The NYAD weekly count looks ripe for a major decline based on slowing long term momentum. Just check out that RSI.

S&P 500 Futures chart analysis

 

• ES Four hour chart shows negative divergence But bears are not getting the expected correction. Price is moving sideways which may be followed by an up move.
• Range breakdown may lead price towards the up trend line.
• Price sustaining above the cloud will not give bigger falls.4

CRUDE Oil Update

• Crude oil daily chart shown with the corrective up move.
• Price is in a bearish continuation pattern. 
• As long as price stays below 200 SMA this can only be called as a corrective up move.
• A bigger up move is possible only if price starts to trade above the weekly cloud, 61.8%(Golden ratio) and 200 SMA.

GOLD Resistance levels

 

• GOLD Daily continue to get resisted near previous support zone which is acting as resistance.
• Price nearing 200 SMA which must be crossed for a bigger up move to happen
• Weekly chart also shows bigger resistances like the weekly cloud and falling resistance line from 1920.
• ES CHART UPDATE