Monday, June 18, 2012
Trend Average Test
The market got stopped by the 50 day MA today and that to me shows some doubts among traders, at the same time the VIX has plummeted so odds still favors the bullish side. I think if the coming correction finds support at the Trend Average (currently 1324), then the market will find enough fuel to propel past the 50 day MA and in turn increase the chances of turning the intermediate trend to the bullish side. But first, let's see how the market holds after the correction.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 June 2012
The new house is keeping me busier than I thought. Needs some work and
never enough time it seems. A month or so, things should settle down for
me.
As far as the wave count, again nothing has changed for the outlook. The SPX has already retraced over 50% which is solidly in wave 2 territory.
Via Sentiment Trader, there is now more bullish sentiment than bearish for the first time since approximately May 1st. That means Minor 2 is working on shaking out the excess bearishness that existed.
So everything is "on schedule" for Minor 2 and it can indeed go higher if need be. And if the market keeps creeping higher, then Minor 2 should stop it in the major resistance zone of approximately 1354-1365.
As far as the wave count, again nothing has changed for the outlook. The SPX has already retraced over 50% which is solidly in wave 2 territory.
Via Sentiment Trader, there is now more bullish sentiment than bearish for the first time since approximately May 1st. That means Minor 2 is working on shaking out the excess bearishness that existed.
So everything is "on schedule" for Minor 2 and it can indeed go higher if need be. And if the market keeps creeping higher, then Minor 2 should stop it in the major resistance zone of approximately 1354-1365.
Monday, June 18, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 18 June 2012
As long as there is no decline below 1326ish, the medium-term trend is up.
S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell
- SPX Daily chart shows price testing 50 Day SMA. Bulls of SPX need a daily close above this level to continue this up move.
- Four hour chart shows price nearing The Golden ratio and previous support level at 1357 - 1358 which may act as a resistance area.
- If price gets near 20 Week SMA this level too will be difficult to cross. We have a MACD sell signal in weekly chart. So for negating bearishness price need to trade above 20 Week SMA or face deeper correction.
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