Monday, June 4, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 4 June 2012
Possible short-term count:
It looks like we're in wave (iv) now. Wave (v) to 1260ish should follow tomorrow/Wednesday.
It looks like we're in wave (iv) now. Wave (v) to 1260ish should follow tomorrow/Wednesday.
S&P 500 ~ Big Picture ~ 4 June 2012
In my last update I assumed that we're in a fourth wave correction which could go as low as 1290. The direction was correct but I underestimated the strength of this correction because we closed below 1290 last week.
Outlook
Friday's close below 1290 was the doom for most bullish counts (wave 1 - wave 4 overlap).
Short-term:
The SPX and also the Nasdaq display five waves down from the top indicating that what we've seen so far is just a part of a bigger correction:
The target area for wave [v] is 1250-70 (SPX). After that we should get a correction to 1300-1340.
Medium-/Long-term:
Long-term is a bit of a mess. There are many possible counts but none of them looks very good to be honest.
Nevertheless, I'll show you the two counts I like most:
Bearish for 2012 but bullish for 2013:
So far nothing is lost for the bulls. As you can see the SPX still makes higher lows and higher highs and I think as long as this persists one should have a bullish bias long-term. We actually got a similar situation during the last bull market (see above chart) so we probably get the same again this time.
Wave (A) should end between 1250 and 1270. Wave (B) to 1300-40 and then wave (C) to ~1150 should complete wave [X]. After that wave [Z] should follow and hit new highs next year. Then we should enter a new bear market and hit new lows below 666.
Bearish for the next few years:
This count will be my preferred one if the market declines below 1075:
I think the chart is self-explanatory: down to new lows to below 666.
As you can see both counts are very similar short- and medium-term: Decline to 1250-70, rally to 1300-40, and then a decline to below 1200. A close above 1340 would invalidate these two scenarios.
To sum up, I think that the long-term count is very unclear. We could be at the start of a new bear market or only in a correction on the way to new all-time highs. Short-term we should complete five waves soon (1250-70) and then get a bounce to 1300-40.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2012/06/elliott-wave-update-3-june-2012.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DanericsElliottWaves+%28Daneric%27s+Elliott+Waves%29,
Monday, June 4, 2012
Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 June 2012
Although today ended relatively flat, trading was still leaning toward
the sell side. The NYSE ended the day at only 35% up volume ratio and a
41% up issues ratio. The NASDAQ fared better at 56% and 50%
respectively.
The S&P again closed under its 200 DMA.
The S&P again closed under its 200 DMA.
Primary count. Missing a small wave (v) of [v] at least.
NDX Daily. 5 waves at least.
Transports confirmed the mid-May move by the Industrials to the downside.
More downside ahead?
The market seems to have to put in the low for its bearish W3. However, whether it is W3 of a W3 or the actual W3 needs to be seen in the days ahead. As a wave rule, the bounce from the low today can not exceed 1298 and if that happens to be the case then we'll probably get at least a 37 point bearish wave from the W4 top to finish up the 5 wave move from 1417. Where it ends doesn't matter that much IMO, what really matters is if the market is able trade above the 200 day MA when the real bounce occurs.
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