Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 June 2012

Friday, June 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 June 2012

Not quite a 90% up day, but strong nonetheless. Today is one of those "key marker" days.  A close under today's daily candle is probably bearish.   On the SPX that translates to a close under 1313 SPX.

 

S&P 500 Chart analysis

• SPX Four hour chart shows price at the upper end of the range.
• Trading above 1363 and 200 period SMA of four hour should favor bulls for the coming week.
• Daily chart closing above the cloud should also favor bulls.

Friday, June 29, 2012

Intermediate trend change looks imminent

It is almost like the market read my post yesterday... The market started one of the strongest bullish W3s this year and flew by the trend average, the 13 day EMA and the 50 day MA without blinking an eye. I know the excuse for the rally is not all that convincing (allowing Spanish and Italian banks to borrow from the fund) but to me what really drives the markets long term is investor sentiment and not these types of news. To put things into perspective and not get sidetracked by all the "noise", catastrophic wave counts and predictions. This correction that started in April is now almost 3 months old and in all this time the bearish advance has been a total of 60 points!.. 1422-1362. The bullish wave preceding it was 4 months old and advanced 264 points 1160-1422. During this correction the market dipped below the 200 day MA just for a day before bouncing bank, signaling investors were waiting for a 200 day test to jump in. Unlike last year where the market sold off hard after the 200 day MA was lost. And unless the market starts trading under 200 day MA, my assumption is that the market is going up. I am aware of bearish wave counts targeting 1200, 1100, sub-1000, etc. but at this point trends don't support that. If anything, we're more likely to see new highs fairly soon once the intermediate trend turns bullish (which should be sometime next week if the 1340 level holds).

Have a great weekend!

Friday, June 29, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 29 June 2012

The SPX is now just underneath the resistance area (1357-66).

Whether or not this is a second wave, going short in this area might not be the worst idea. I expect at least a small pullback here.


Maybe you remember that in early May, 1385 was an important level. I think 1335 is now the new 1385. If we get a pullback below this level, then wave [iii] should be underway.

Friday, June 22, 2012

With this sell off I will change my bullish perspective to neutral! The principal reason isn't because this sell off but the choppy patern since the May lows.