Thị trường tiếp tục xu hướng giảm - S&P ở W5.1.3

Thị trường lại tiếp tục xu hướng giảm, S&P đang ở sóng giảm trung hạn 1.W5.3.

http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/, 

Friday, June 1, 2012

Market resumes bearish trend

The market decided to put in a clear W3 and at least we now have a better picture of the entire wave I've labeled "C". The 1292 level was the end of the W3 for this C wave and after an ABC bounce, we got the W1 and W2 yesterday and today we got the W3 with possibly more downside to come after a mild bounce. The trend obviously has turned down so we're back in confirmed bearish in the short term as the TA has fallen to 1313. Once the 5th of this C wave completes and I will continue to assume this is a correction within a bull market given the fact that a) 50/200 MA b) This is a 10% correction after a 30% run. One thing that we need to pay attention to is the 200 day MA, the market must bounce above it after the wave is done. If the 200 day MA becomes resistance then the bull market will start looking questionable.

Have a great weekend!

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2012/06/elliott-wave-update-1-june-2012.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DanericsElliottWaves+%28Daneric%27s+Elliott+Waves%29,

Friday, June 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 June 2012

Yesterday the forecast for a wave (iii) of [v] to occur "very soon" came exactly this morning. Another heavy day of selling. 92% down volume ratio on the NYSE and a whopping 95% down on the NASDAQ.  Decliners versus advancers were 86% and 84% respectively.  Overall today can probably be considered a 90% down day when combining all of the above ratios.

Best count for the S&P500 might be the one below although I hesitate to call exactly when another significant bounce period will occur considering the terrible conditions of the underlying fundamentals (yes the entire world's financial system really is a Ponzi scheme) and the thought that if this is Primary wave [3] down, there should be a downward exertion that trumps that experienced in 2008.

Regardless, again the best count for now is that we have at least a 5 wave pattern down and that is indicative of a trend change.

A five wave move should "look" right from afar. Using the daily, this basic common-sense EW look passes the minimum test.

And yet another high pressure selling day can be seen.  

NOTE: Its not the wave degree that matters so much (they may be one degree too high) but its the form that matters.  

5 waves down pretty much confirmed in all indexes - less the Transports which are kinda impossible to count since their early Feb high anyways.

Now excuse me while I go read today's newest (June issue) EWI Financial Forecast bear pron.

Posted by Daneric at 4:30 PM  

 

http://www.wavaholic.com/, 

Friday, June 1, 2012

Gold ~ Update ~ 1 June 2012

Today's move in gold is probably even more impressive then the move in the SPX:

We're now right at the resistance around 1630ish. If we can break it on a daily basis I'll turn medium-term bullish again.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 1 June 2012

The reason why I'd like to see a daily close below 1290, before turning bearish again, is the following:


Do you remember when we opened below 1100 back in October 2011? Bears were happy that we finally left the huge sideways range to the downside. The SPX reversed though and closed inside the range again which was the start of a huge move up.

I'm not saying that this will happen again today but I think it's something you have to be aware of.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 1 June 2012

I'm sorry for the late update considering the huge move we've seen in the futures but I wasn't able to write a post earlier.

We got a huge gap down today and are right now trading around 1290-95. I've been neutral since we hit 1300 about two weeks ago (http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/05/spx-eod-update-17-may-2012.html). If we close below 1290ish today I'll turn bearish again (more on that after the close).

Potential short-term count:

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

• SPX trading below 20 Month SMA will attract bears towards the monthly trend line shown in the same chart. For avoiding a bigger fall bulls must get back above 20 month SMA.
• Daily chart too turned completely bearish after price traded and closed below 200 Day SMA.
• Only hope for bulls is the falling wedge pattern. Price is approaching the support line of the wedge. For this patter to work in bulls favor price has to get back above 200 SMA soon. If the down move continues wedge pattern may fail.

 

http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp,