Thứ Sáu, 31 tháng 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 August 2012

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 August 2012

Squiggle count on the SPX:
Certainly the GDOW since the October 2011 low and the 2012 low are 3 wave correctives up. Just think about the implications of the wave pattern on this GDOW. If the GDOW is in a series of (1)-(2), 1-2 down since its 2011 high, THINK of how large wave 3 of (3) down will project lower prices.
SPX weekly. Simple double negative divergence on the RSI with lessening momentum and signs of rollover with contracting volume on a rising market within a wedge shape no less and obeying a 7.25 year cycle ellipse that is petering out: A recipe for a historic and swift decline.
Whats worse is the still rising 50 and 200 DMA's will prove to be unsustainable if a historic price decline occurs and likely be violated with extreme prejudice.
A price drop under the lower rising wedgeline thereby obliterating the 50/200 may induce a panic bigger than 2008.
A closer look:

Thứ Năm, 30 tháng 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 August 2012

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 August 2012

Technicals are anemic.  Yet prices are levitating. Zero Hedge notes the low volume situation.

The overall market has not had true a 90% up day (where stocks are 90% up volume ratio and 90% advancers vs decliners) since October 2011.  Volume is slowing to its most lowest in many. years.  A rising market on low volume is not healthy. In addition, the fragmentation between indexes, subindexes and other world market indexes is at such a wide divergence, that one need not even look that hard to see. The rally is not powerfully plowing ahead, it is fragmenting like a meteor coming back through the atmosphere.

More importantly, the wave pattern since the 1010 SPX 2010 low is in the shape of an upward rising wedge. This pattern forms when prices get compressed upwards in a pushing, ragged, non-impulsive manner. In other words, the waves do not count well as stand-alone impulses. (we can probably say that the entire rally since the 2009 low is made up of ragged waves).

This rising wedge is a result of slowing momentum.  Each successive wave leg up shows signs of lesser and lesser technical conditions. Yet prices continue to lurch on this lesser momentum. The end result is exhaustion. The fact that the wedge is over 2 years old shows that the degree of slowing momentum is of a historic nature and a very large wave degree.

There can only be one way to resolve a wedge: a price collapse from sheer exhaustion that declines in a manner that is at least equal with the total price rise of the wedge --- and thats for starters. So a rapid price decline to under 1000 SPX is to be expected in such a scenario.
Wilshire 5000:
SPX 5 minute. A very complex set of waves over the last many days. Sooner or later the complexity will end abruptly and the market will reassert itself in one direction or another. Technicals suggest that the direction will be down. However, If the direction is up, I would suspect it will be one last great lurch in the great wedging action since 2010. A "Give-it-all-you-got" moment near the very end of a long trend since March 2009. And I suspect the end result afterwards will be disastrous nonetheless.
USD weekly. Sentiment has pulled back quite a bit. Perfect setup for an eventual wave three up.

ES Chart update

  • ES Four hour chart shows price contraction which may give a bigger move soon.
  • Second chart shows the support and resistance levels.
  • Last chart shows fibonacci levels and target areas.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 29 August 2012

Not much is going on right now... It looks like everbody is waiting for the (non-?)event on Friday.


S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 29 August 2012

Similar to yesterday, the SPX dropped to the support at 1407ish and then rallied:



Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Silver ~ Update ~ 28 August 2012

Silver hit the strong resistance area between 31 and 31.5 yesterday:


As you can see, we're at an important level. If we can breach 31-32ish, the long-term trend is up again.

ES ~ Update ~ 28 August 2012

The ES is obviously very similar to the SPX but in the ES chart below, you can nicely see how the market tested the broken channel line yesterday and today:




Thứ Hai, 27 tháng 8, 2012

S&P 500 Weekend update


  • SPX Shows a MACD Sell signal after negative divergence.
  • Sell signal will be effective only if price starts to trade below 20 day SMA. For now price is getting support at 20 Day SMA.
  • Last chart shows strength above 1406 and 1422 which are resistance levels. For a possible breakdown price must fall below the rising support line from 1266 through 1331.

GOLD Weekend update


 
  • Gold has closed above 50 Week SMA.
  • Price has also closed above weekly falling resistance line.
  • Last two charts shows levels which may act as resistance. If price breaks these two levels on closing basis we may see a bigger up move in gold.

Thứ Sáu, 24 tháng 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 August 2012

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 August 2012

The Wilshire5000 is quietly now some 325 points from its 2011 high.  We'll keep this wave count up as primary count for the overall market:
The S&P 500 of course made a new high. It was predicted on this blog a few weeks ago that if the S&P made a new high, the Wilshire would likely not.  So far that has been the case. The Wilshire failed to make a new high by almost 70 points which is a fairly decent divergence from the SPX.

Bears would like to label the SPX a wedge with underthrow.  A rising wedge is a bearish pattern in and of itself. However having underthrow - where prices to not even go up to meet the upper wedgeline - is an added layer of bearishness to price action.

What is a rule of contracting ending diagonal patterns? One is that the internal wave structure consist of "three's".  Certainly the wave 1, 3 and 5 wave legs since the 2010 low better counts internally as "three's" rather than 5 wave impulses so far.  That adds weight to the wedge scenario.

And what is a rule for prices once a wedge exhausts? A price decline back to under where the wedge started.  That would be under 1000 SPX in this case.  And that decline may be rapid as compared to the time it took to gain the points. From 1010 SPX to 1426 SPX took a full 25 months. If a "normal" price decline to 1000 SPX occurs, we would expect that to take 8-12 months. However if a rapid price declines occurs, we can cut that time by by half or more again. It could be a matter of a few months. This is why exhausting wedges are considered dangerous.

So whats my point? the point is we'll know soon enough if prices have exhausted.  The internal structures since the 1010 SPX low indicate a lack of impulsiveness despite the overall gains toward 1426.  This is a key element is wave theory.

The wedge also is weakening on each up leg as one would expect.  The last gasp of these past few weeks has been on low volume and lacking in 90% up days. The market is ripe for a major rapid decline of 400+ SPX points.

Of course the Wilshire500o is not counted as a wedge. Therefore it would be in wave 3 down. And wave 3's are always the strongest.
Potential squiggle count if the market has topped at 1426 SPX:

The NYAD counts as finished:
Of course longer term:
NYAD weekly. RSI is looking ripe for a major decline.
SPX weekly. One more day in this week, but even the double negative divergence on the RSI is pronounced.  In conjunction with a wedge pattern, the negative divergence is strengthened.

Chủ Nhật, 19 tháng 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 August 2012

Friday, August 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 August 2012

Little early today, leaving town for a night.
If this is the biggest rising bearish wedge ever, then the subsequent price collapse will be too.



S&P 500 Weekend update



  • Ascending channel and MACD Buy signal keeping the up move going.
  • Price and MACD Histogram continue to diverge without any effect on price. Bears are hoping for a double top kind correction from 1422 levels.
  • Last chart shows the possibility of 1422 level getting broken and a possible up move towards 1445 levels before a major fall could happen.

Friday, August 17, 2012


Friday, August 17, 2012

Coming bearish wave



I posted last week that 1422 was going to be possibly challenged this week and the market got very close to it at 1419. And judging by the way the market closed, we might see the market make a new high for the year early next week. But what matters now in my opinion is the coming bearish wave. I've read on several mainstream sites on how this bullish wave caught many off guard - they obviously were not reading about my posts :)- so we'll see if the crowd makes the jump after the first correction. I expect a correction sooner rather than later to the trend average but ideally it would be better if it did a proper Fib correction as those are the levels that should attract buyers who felt they missed the rally. If those levels do not attract enough buyers then we'll be in for a much deeper correction.

Have a great weekend!

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long
Short Term Trading Strategy: Hedged with VXX as of 08/16/2012



Thứ Sáu, 17 tháng 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 August 2012 - Rất hay 5+

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 August 2012

I consider the Wilshire 5000 the ultimate arbiter of the overall wave form of the markets.  For now it is 200 points below its previous peak.
S&P daily. Bearish rising wedge? Its internal wave structures count better as "threes" rather than impulses. That is a trait of an ending diagonal triangle (although I have this chart labeled as a triple zigzag). And this would probably be the biggest one ever.
SPX 30 minute.
NYAD count:
INDUSTRIALS count long term.

IMPORTANT POINTS TO CONSIDER:
1.) Note how the 2007 high is considered a "B" wave no matter what the count. The only question is at what degree.

2.) Note that the rise since 2009 is considered a "three" no matter what the degree outcome turns out to be.

The two points above are important to consider in the overall count since the 2000 orthodox social mood peak.   Whether or not the rally since 2009 is a Primary wave (2) or a cycle wave b (or even cycle x) is a moot point at this junction. Because both counts say the same thing: A nasty primary wave [3] down of cycle c or a complete cycle wave c itself is coming around the corner.  

There will be no great distinction between a wave [3] of cycle c or an outright complete cycle wave  c itself.  Both will involve intense selling.

BONDS:
Were bonds in a wedge? A subsequent price collapse is a clue and so far prices are cooperating. Wedges are signs of exhaustion and occur only at endpoints.
NDX:
Well at least the GDOW is cooperating with the overall count:
Ask China if they are in the grip of a bear market.
Or Japan:
CPC (yesterday's close)
Uh Oh. Rising 10Y yields are not bullish due to the record debt that needs to be serviced. And if mortgage rates take a hit, watch out for housing again.

Thứ Năm, 16 tháng 8, 2012

Stock_16 August


Thứ năm, ngày 16 tháng tám năm 2012

Stock_16 August

16 August 2012,

VN-INDEX: 430.83  (0.06,0.01%)  Đóng cửa
26,763,034 CP 488.189 tỷ    80(20)  104   131(29)
HNX-INDEX: 69.94  (-0.21,-0.30%) Đóng cửa
33,869,690 CP 315.69 tỷ    79(21)  212   109(31)


Chỉ số diễn biến trái chiều trong phiên hôm nay, thanh khoản sụt giảm ở HSX (-23%) và tăng nhẹ ở HNX (2%). Số cổ phiếu tăng giá ít hơn giảm giá cho thấy dòng tiền chưa đủ vào thị trường theo chiều rộng, dòng tiền thông minh lựa chọn những cổ phiếu cơ bản bên HSX (thời gian gần đây là ngành dầu khí) để mua.

HNX_daily chart
HNX: HNX tiếp tục hành trình tìm xu hướng mới, biên độ dao động hiện tại rất hẹp cho thấy thời điểm xu hướng diễn ra rất gần, có lẽ xu hướng sắp tới sẽ rõ ràng và dễ đánh hơn thời điểm hiện tại.

Tiếp tục giữ trạng thái và chờ đợi đối với những NĐT cầm tiền mặt.

Good trade my friends!

Daily report 16.8.2012 Link down here Đọc thêm!