Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 August 2012

ORIGINAL POST
Another massive drop in the VIX today. Based on that, the current wave structure, and what seems to be one more small wave up needed in the NYAD daily count, we can assume the market will try and take one more shot at breaking upwards.

Using the Wilshire below for form, we have the best count(s) laid out.  Either Minor 2 has topped or will after a short burst up in trying to break through to new highs.  If a new 2012 high does occur, we'd have to label the new high Primary [2] proper.  If a market burst did occur, there is a chance the S&P500 bests its 1422 SPX previous high and the broader Wilshire5000 does not thereby creating a bearish non-confirmation.

The sideways action of the last week - if it is some kind of wave four - can only relate to the previous up move wave (i) of [c] as noted on the chart.  There is too much sideways action to relate this as a wave four in relation to any subwaves that occurred since the 14101.79 pivot low. Therefore this squiggle chart here has been eliminated as a count due to the length of a sideways wave four.  Its simply too big to relate to wave ii on the chart as I had it. Of course if a decline starts tomorrow, then we can use the count basically by putting a wave v at the top of last week..

Its kind of a moot point anyways. We have a low volume August, low volatility and the market trying to maintain its gains so it can challenge its previous 2012 high. Can it do it?

The NYAD daily supports the notion of a final wave [v] of 5 of (5) of [5].

The NYAD weekly count looks ripe for a major decline based on slowing long term momentum. Just check out that RSI.