Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 July 2012
The SPX daily shows a very nice Elliott wave structure from the 1422 SPX
high. We have 5 waves down and some kind of counter-move three wave
structure retracing over 62%. Its hard to argue that its something
else. In EW theory we look for the best counts. And the best count is
bearish.
Minor 2 tried to re-take key resistance in the zone where we expected it be stopped. After all, if Minor 2 can re-take this resistance, whats to stop it from challenging previous highs? But it hasn't been able to re-take resistance so its best count is that this is a Minor 2 wave and that the market may be in the early stages of Minor 3 down.
Note how much bearish potential exists for Minor 3. If Minor 3 extends a modest 1.618 of Minor 1, the market should be well under 1200 SPX in a Minor 3 down move. A close under 1335 would help confirm Minor 3 down status.
SPX 5 minute squiggles shows impulsiveness to the downside.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012Minor 2 tried to re-take key resistance in the zone where we expected it be stopped. After all, if Minor 2 can re-take this resistance, whats to stop it from challenging previous highs? But it hasn't been able to re-take resistance so its best count is that this is a Minor 2 wave and that the market may be in the early stages of Minor 3 down.
Note how much bearish potential exists for Minor 3. If Minor 3 extends a modest 1.618 of Minor 1, the market should be well under 1200 SPX in a Minor 3 down move. A close under 1335 would help confirm Minor 3 down status.
SPX 5 minute squiggles shows impulsiveness to the downside.
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 3 ~ 10 July 2012
It looks like the support is breaking now. The next target should be 1334-37.
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 10 July 2012
SPY Support levels
- SPY Near 50 Day SMA.
- One hour chart too is showing a similar setup with price near 50 Hour SMA and 38.2% Fib level.
- Supporting trend line shown in 2nd chart too may act as support.
- For extending the down move price must close below these levels. Taking support here may result in a bounce.
- GOLD TRIANGLE PATTERN
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Stalled Rally
The market seemed like it was going to rally at the open but it reversed quickly so the correction continues. The lower low (which tested the 50 day ma) on this wave almost went into Wave 1 territory but it did not, so the count remains valid. However, if the market does not start the 5th wave pronto then it risks rolling over to the downside. The market closed under the TA but trend reversal is not confirmed. Also, the lower channel from the 1266 wave remains clear so we'll see if it continues to hold.
