Big Picture ~ 20 June 2012
Review
In my last update I expected that the market would form a bottom between 1250 and 1270 and then rally to 1300-40. On June 6th I turned bullish and raised my target to 1330-65. Yesterday, the SPX hit the higher end of my target area (1363) thus I think it's time to have a look at the different scenarios again.
Outlook
1360-65 should be an important level.
Short-term
We got five waves down from April till June and now three waves up. So, the count looks pretty good:
If 1326 and 1335 are breached, the next wave towards 1200 is most likely underway. Should we get two consecutive daily closes above 1365ish, this count is most likely wrong.
Medium/Long-term
I'm still not sure which long-term count I like more but I think it's not really important because we should see a decline to 1200 in any case:
Bearish for 2012 but bullish for 2013:
Bearish for the next few years:
What if 1360-65 is breached?
If this level is broken, I expect a rally back to the highs and most likely even higher.
Possible bullish count (for the Dow Jones):
This count is invalid below 12550 / 1326 (SPX).
Summary
Above 1365 = bullish
Between 1326-65 = neutral
Below 1326 = bearish
In my last update I expected that the market would form a bottom between 1250 and 1270 and then rally to 1300-40. On June 6th I turned bullish and raised my target to 1330-65. Yesterday, the SPX hit the higher end of my target area (1363) thus I think it's time to have a look at the different scenarios again.
Outlook
1360-65 should be an important level.
Short-term
We got five waves down from April till June and now three waves up. So, the count looks pretty good:
If 1326 and 1335 are breached, the next wave towards 1200 is most likely underway. Should we get two consecutive daily closes above 1365ish, this count is most likely wrong.
Medium/Long-term
I'm still not sure which long-term count I like more but I think it's not really important because we should see a decline to 1200 in any case:
Bearish for 2012 but bullish for 2013:
Bearish for the next few years:
What if 1360-65 is breached?
If this level is broken, I expect a rally back to the highs and most likely even higher.
Possible bullish count (for the Dow Jones):
This count is invalid below 12550 / 1326 (SPX).
Summary
Above 1365 = bullish
Between 1326-65 = neutral
Below 1326 = bearish
Since May lows SPX seems finishing 5 waves to the upside as leading weadge. So, at this point the waves suggest the bullish count (chart 1 and chart 2) is underway.
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