Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Market Update
Despite the market moving 18 points from the lowest point to the highest, there isn't much to do but to wait. The pattern continues to be bullish until another weekly low is made so the market could just be zig zagging in preparation for a bullish W3. There is the possibility of a bearish wave coming obviously but given the trend and other traditional technical indicators, the odds don't favor it.
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Tuesday, June 12, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 June 2012
This is basically an update of the two counts I showed yesterday (http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/06/s-500-eod-update-11-june-2012.html).
Today's action actually fits both counts. So it's too early which way the market goes for the next few days.
If 1326 and 1335 are breached, it's very likely that the bullish count is underway and I think we should see a rally to at least 1360:
If the SPX declines below today's low, the bearish count looks much better and we should see a decline to the early June lows:
Today's action actually fits both counts. So it's too early which way the market goes for the next few days.
If 1326 and 1335 are breached, it's very likely that the bullish count is underway and I think we should see a rally to at least 1360:
If the SPX declines below today's low, the bearish count looks much better and we should see a decline to the early June lows:
EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 12 June 2012
We got a small rally but we're still below 1.26-1.265. So this could be
just a bounce followed by another decline to even lower levels than in
May.
If 1.26-1.265 is breached though, the sell-off should be over and I expect a rally to 1.30.
If 1.26-1.265 is breached though, the sell-off should be over and I expect a rally to 1.30.
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 12 June 2012
I got my rally to 1320 : )
If we manage to get above 1326, the bullish count is very likely. If we stay below it, the bearish count is still possible (http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/06/s-500-eod-update-11-june-2012.html)
If we manage to get above 1326, the bullish count is very likely. If we stay below it, the bearish count is still possible (http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/06/s-500-eod-update-11-june-2012.html)
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 12 June 2012
It looks like we completed five waves down a few minutes ago. If 1307.5ish holds we could get a rally to 1320:
Gold ~ Update ~ 12 June 2012
We didn't get a close above 1630 last week so I remain neutral on gold:
As you can see in the chart, the situation for gold is similar to the
one for silver. Support is at 1550ish and resistance at 1630. The
medium-term trend is bearish again if 1550 is breached and bullish if
1630 is broken.
Silver ~ Update ~ 12 June 2012
As said in my last update, the targets for a rally are 30ish and 31.3ish. Silver hit 30$ last week:
We continue to trade between the resistance areas 31.3 & 30 and the support area at 26-27. As long as we remain between these levels I'm neutral on silver (medium-term).
The medium-term and possibly even the long-term trend is back to bullish if 31.3ish is breached. If 26 is broken the medium-term is bearish again and we could decline to 20 $.
We continue to trade between the resistance areas 31.3 & 30 and the support area at 26-27. As long as we remain between these levels I'm neutral on silver (medium-term).
The medium-term and possibly even the long-term trend is back to bullish if 31.3ish is breached. If 26 is broken the medium-term is bearish again and we could decline to 20 $.
Monday, June 11, 2012
S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 11 June 2012
Wow, what a reversal. I remember that we got a similar reversal in 2010.
I think back in 2010 China reported some numbers overnight, the market
gapped up, reversed, and closed lower:
As you can see that day was an important top. It could be similar today:
If 1295ish doesn't hold the next impulse to new lows below 1267 is most likely underway.
As long as this level holds though it's still possible that we get an inverse H&S:
As you can see that day was an important top. It could be similar today:
If 1295ish doesn't hold the next impulse to new lows below 1267 is most likely underway.
As long as this level holds though it's still possible that we get an inverse H&S:
and fractals in this excerpt. Read more.
I'm following the bullish option cause the downside pattern seems corretive.
SPX update
Monday, June 11, 2012
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 June 2012
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<------------Just click on the link to the left (EWI), become a FREE CLUB EWI member (it really is free, no hassles), and get access to a lot of free EWI material. This month they are offering a full issue of Financial Forecast (a monthly newsletter). I highly recommend it for those that are not club EWI members.
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ORIGINAL POST
Sorry for the late posts been busy getting the new house ready. I bought a small Cape Cod style house and it needs some paint, etc. I have access to it early so am getting some things done while its empty. Closing is on Friday and we move in!
Despite the e-mini futures selling off 45 points from a post -Spanish bailout high, it appears Minor 2 is not yet finished and that the pullback was merely a [b] wave of Minor 2. That is the primary count.
<------------Just click on the link to the left (EWI), become a FREE CLUB EWI member (it really is free, no hassles), and get access to a lot of free EWI material. This month they are offering a full issue of Financial Forecast (a monthly newsletter). I highly recommend it for those that are not club EWI members.
DISCLOSURE: I get $3 for signing people up to be a CLUB EWI member if you do it through my links. I then get a small commission if you decide at any time to subscribe to one of their newsletters or other services. I currently subscribe to 4 services; the monthly Financial Forecast, Elliott Wave Theorist, and The Socionomist; and the Short Term Update (Posted every Mon - Wed - Fri).
ORIGINAL POST
Sorry for the late posts been busy getting the new house ready. I bought a small Cape Cod style house and it needs some paint, etc. I have access to it early so am getting some things done while its empty. Closing is on Friday and we move in!
Despite the e-mini futures selling off 45 points from a post -Spanish bailout high, it appears Minor 2 is not yet finished and that the pullback was merely a [b] wave of Minor 2. That is the primary count.
The daily. 50 DMA could use some loving. The main theory is that Minor 2
should die on the shores of the next major resistance band of which
we'll call the middle of the band = 1360.
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