Friday, September 6, 2013
The best count is likely a second wave Minute [ii]. The bias is for more upside due to the fact that there exists a belligerent open SPY gap at about 1685 SPX and that the retrace has fallen short of a "typical" minute [ii] wave. Again, Monday will bring more wave evidence.
Using the Wilshire 5000 for form, we may have a slightly differing count. But its implies the same basic premise: that the market is in Minute [ii] up, and after that comes wave [iii] down - a strong selling wave.
So where is sentiment? Well for instance via Sentiment Trader, their "% of indicators at an extreme" are 1% "bullish for stock prices" and 4% "bearish for stock prices". Considering that 20 - 30% in either category represents a lopsided extreme, the market is quite "neutral". This probably is an advantage for the bears longer term.
Another chart. This is "Smart Money Index" again via Sentiment Trader. Note how it closely tracks the Presidential Approval rating.