Thứ Ba, 25 tháng 6, 2013

Elliott Wave Count ~ 24 June 2013

ES Resistance levels

  • ES 30 Minutes chart shows resistance at the cloud and 100 Period SMA.
  • Bulls must cross these levels for the bounce to extend.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 24 June 2013

Updated medium-term count:

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 23 June 2013

Once you have a count there is a tendency to stay with this count and adjust it over time. At the start these adjustments are small but after a while they add up. Eventually, this can lead to counts which just don't look right anymore.

Having had my long-term count for more than three years it has changed from a simple zigzag into a double zigzag and currently into a triple zigzag. Triple zigzags occur only very rarely though, and in fact, I think the count looks very unproportional.

Thus, I deleted my long-term SPX count on Friday and recounted the SPX without any bias. And that's the result:

I actually like it much more than my previous count. It's much simpler and many problems are gone.

You could count wave [C]/[3] slightly differently. It is possible that we are still in wave 3 of (3) or already in wave (4).

The very-long term count remains the same. I still think that eventually we will end up at levels lower than in 2009.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 June 2013

Another heavy down session on higher volume. Down breadth has been significant and has "changed" the most since anytime since the 2009 low.

Note the 3 stabs under oversold lately (Blue Circle). We haven't seen that since the rally began. The nature of the market may have changed to "bear".
Squiggle count:
Daily shows heavy volume again. Clearly the next horizontal support level can be seen at 1536 SPX. Would also correspond to a down trendline touch.
6 month yield count is perking up as suggested last Friday:
I really like this BPSXP chart also. Broken trendline.

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