Thứ Năm, 10 tháng 11, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 November 2011 [Update 5:11PM]

[Update 5:11PM: DJIA is probably sporting the best wave structures.  Clearly an (a)(b)(c) up from Minor 1 low to the early November high.  That is a corrective pattern (which means the larger trend at Minor degree is down). The price high is more than enough in price to fulfill a wave 2.  The only reason to suspect Minor 2 may squeak eventually to another high above 1292 SPX is to extend the time factor.  However, double zigzags usually occur not for the purpose to increase time, but to increase price.

In the end, Minor 3 down is predicted to occur (if we are not already in it) and the price target is well below 1000 SPX and even below 900SPX. So getting wrapped around the axle at these elevated price levels may be a moot point. So one must be ready for an outright price crash just as large as the 2008 price drop in my opinion because Minor wave 3's of this predicted size are not kind.]

The proposed (b) wave of [x] of Minor 2 did not retrace 90% of (a). So the flat count is likely out for Minute [x] wave since flats should retrace at least 90% as a guideline. The next best pattern would be a zigzag with prices going to the 50DMA at 1199. Support is also at 1190. So 1190-1200 is a good target range.  (c) = (a) within [x] of 2 at about 1200 SPX.

Anything lower than 1190 and I suspect this is part of Minor 3 down, not a corrective [x] wave of Minor 2 up.

The top alternate count is that this is Minute (iii) of Minute [i] of Minor 3 down.  But the massive SPY gap down is a thorn in the side of this count.

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